Microsoft Research: http://research.microsoft.com
Microsoft Research: http://research.microsoft.com
Newsfutures: http://www.newsfutures.com Hosting PM2, the Prediction Market Market
Yahoo! Research Labs: http://research.yahoo.com
Wednesday, February 2, 2005
Tutorial Session I
12:00 - 1:30 Lunch and Registration - 4th Floor, Lounge, CoRE Building
Registration for the tutorial will be
limited to the first 60 registrations.
1:30 - 3:00 Information Markets I: Examples, Rules, History, Mechanics,
Studies, Participants, Ambiguity, Laws
Joyce Berg, Accounting, University of Iowa
3:00 - 3:30 break
Tutorial Session II
3:30 - 5:00 Information Markets II: Theory, Outputs, Inputs, Foul Play,
Combinatorics, Applications
Robin Hanson, Economics, George Mason University
Thursday, February 3, 2005
8:15 - 8:45 Registration and Breakfast - 4th Floor, Lounge, CoRE Building
8:45 - 9:00 Welcome and Opening Remarks
Fred Roberts, DIMACS Director and
David Pennock, Yahoo! Research Labs
Session: Policy, Politics, & Interpretation
9:00 - 9:30 Event markets: Commercial viability and regulatory acceptance
Michael Gorham, Business, Illinois Institute of Technology
9:30 - 9:55 Information Markets and Regulation: Opportunities and Challenges
Robert Hahn, AEI-Brookings Joint Center
9:55 - 10:20 Information Markets and Politics
Adam Meirowitz, Politics, Princeton University and
Joshua Tucker, Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
10:20 - 10:45 Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
Justin Wolfers, Business, University of Pennsylvania
10:45 - 11:15 break
Session: Experimental Economics
11:15 - 11:40 An Experimental Test of Combinatorial Information Markets
John Ledyard, Humanities and Social Sciences,
California Institute of Technology
11:40 - 12:05 Information markets and decision makers
Tony Kwasnica, Management Science, Pennsylvania State University
12:05 - 12:30 Information aggregation: Experiments and industrial applications
Kay-yut Chen, Hewlett Packard Labs
12:30 - 2:00 Lunch
Session: Business Models, Industry & Field Experience, Part I
2:00 - 2:15 Internal markets: Why and for who?
Carol Gebert, Incentive Markets
2:15 - 2:30 Tee Time with Admiral Poindexter
Todd Proebsting, Microsoft Research
2:30 - 2:45 Information markets as a platform for improved corporate communications
Steven Ostrover, EconOne
2:45 - 3:00 Challenges of Bringing Information Markets to the Organization
Ken Kittlitz, The Foresight Exchange
3:00 - 3:15 TBA
3:15 - 3:45 break
Session: Applications and Manipulation
3:45 - 4:10 Overconfidence and prediction bias in political stock markets
Carsten Schmidt, Business and Economics, Humboldt University Berlin
4:10 - 4:35 Expert identification via virtual stock markets: Finding
lead users in consumer product markets
Martin Spann, Business and Economics, Frankfurt University
4:35 - 5:00 Are prediction markets robust against manipulation? A lab experiment
Martin Strobel,Economics, Maastricht University
5:00 - 6:00 Rump session (Anyone who requests time can have the floor for five minutes to speak
on any relevant topic. To participate in the rump session, please email David Pennock.)
I'm glad to see you've all discovered the Delphi method!
Murray Turoff, Information Systems, New Jersey Institute of Technology
Does money matter?
Emile-Servan Schrieber, Newsfutures
Auto-arbitrage in multi-outcome markets
Emile-Servan Schrieber, Newsfutures
A first Israeli prediction market at the IDC
Ehud Vaks, Interdisciplinary Center, Hertzeliya, Israel
7:30 - 9:00 Banquet - the Holiday Inn in South Plainfield
Friday, February 4, 2005
8:30 - 9:00 Registration and Breakfast - 4th Floor, Lounge, CoRE Building
Session: Manipulation
9:00 - 9:30 Manipulation in prediction markets: Evidence from historical
and contemporary election markets
Koleman Strumpf, Economics, University of North Carolina
9:30 - 9:55 Manipulators increase information market accuracy
Robin Hanson, Economics, George Mason University
9:55 - 10:20 Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market
Ryan Oprea, Economics, George Mason University
Session: Iowa Electronic Market
11:15 - 11:40 Operating with doctors: Results from the 2004 and 2005 influenza markets
George Neumann, Economics, University of Iowa
11:40 - 12:05 Public signal bias and prediction market accuracy
Thomas Gruca, Marketing, University of Iowa
12:05 - 12:30 Searching for Google's value: Using prediction markets
to forecast market capitalization prior to an IPO
Thomas Rietz, Finance, University of Iowa
12:30 - 2:00 Lunch
Session: Business Models, Industry & Field Experience, Part II
2:00 - 2:15 HedgeStreet: An introduction
Russell Andersson, Hedgestreet.com
2:15 - 2:30 Corporate prediction markets: Lessons from the real world
Emile Servan-Schreiber, Newsfutures
2:30 - 2:45 Zocalo: An Open-Source Platform for Deploying Prediction Markets
Chris Hibbert, CommerceNet
2:45 - 3:00 Emphasizing the mundane: Making a business of information markets
Charles Polk, Common Knowledge Markets
3:00 - 3:15 TBA
Session: Computation, Strategies, and Mechanisms
3:45 - 4:10 Computational complexity issues in information markets
Lance Fortnow, Computer Science, University of Chicago
4:10 - 4:35 Strategic issues in prediction markets
Michael Wellman, Computer Science, University of Michigan
4:35 - 5:00 A dynamic pari-mutuel market for hedging, wagering,
and information aggregation
David Pennock, Yahoo! Research Labs
5:00 - 6:00 Post-mortem panel discussion on the Policy Analysis Market
(a.k.a., "Terror Futures")
Robin Hanson, Economics, George Mason University
John Ledyard, Humanities and Social Sciences,
California Institute of Technology
Charles Polk, Common Knowledge Markets
George Neumann, Economics, University of Iowa
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